07/01

Gosling, J. P. and O'Hagan, A. (2007). Understanding the uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales. Research Report No. 567/06, Department of Probability and Statistics, The University of Sheffield.

07/02

Rougier, J.C., (2007). Lightweight emulators for complex multivariate functions. MUCM Technical Report 07/02, University of Durham

07/03

Gosling, J.P. (2006) Differences between estimates of expected computer code output with GEM-SA. Technical Report. Department of Probability and Statistics, The University of Sheffield.

07/04

J.C. Rougier, D.M.H. Sexton, J.M. Murphy, and D. Stainforth (2009), Emulating the sensitivity of the HadSM3 climate model using ensembles from different but related experiments. Journal of Climate, 22(13), 3540-3557. DOI:10.1175/2008JCLI2533.1

07/05

Rougier, J. (2007).  A Simple Conjugate Emulator: Theory and Programming. (with resulting picture) MUCM Technical Report 07/05.  [Submitted to Technometrics Special Volume on the SAMSI CompMod program]

07/06

Boukouvalas, A., Maniyar, D.M. and Cornford, D. (2007). Dimensionality Reduction in Complex Models. Technical Report No. NCRG/2007/001. Neural Computing Research Group, Aston University

07/07

Bernstein, Y., Maruri-Aguilar, H,  Onn, S., Riccomagno, E and Wynn, H.P.. Minimal average degree aberration and the state polytope for experimental designs. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (in press). arXiv:0808.3055

07/09

Bernstein, Yael; Lee, Jon; Maruri-Aguilar, Hugo; Onn, Shmuel; Riccomagno, Eva; Weismantel, Robert; Wynn, Henry Nonlinear matroid optimization and experimental design. SIAM J. Discrete Math. 22 (2008), 901—919

07/10

Maruri-Aguilar, H. and Wynn, H.P. Generalised design:  interpolation and statistical modelling over varieties. In: Algebraic and Geometric Methods in Statistics. Cambridge University Press.  Eds: Paolo Gibilisco, Eva Riccomagno, Maria Piera Rogantin, and Henry P. Wynn  (2009).

07/11

Maniyar, D.M., Cornford, D and Boukouvalas A. (2007). Dimensionality reduction in the emulator setting. NCRG/2007/005, Neural Computing Research Group, Aston University.

1.2.2

07/12

J.C. Rougier (2008), Efficient emulators for multivariate deterministic functions, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 17(4), 827-843. doi:10.1198/106186008X384032.

07/13

Wynn, H. (2007). Bayesian information-based learning and Majorization. MUCM Technical report 07/13, LSE.

08/01

Bates, Ron A.; Maruri-Aguilar, Hugo; Wynn, Henry P. Smooth supersaturated models eprint arXiv:0809.4654

08/02

Bastos, L. S. and O'Hagan, A. (2008). Diagnostics for Gaussian process emulators. Research Report No. 574/07, Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield. Technometrics 51, 425--438

08/03

Cripps, E., O'Hagan, A., Quaife, T. and Anderson, C. W. (2008). Modelling uncertainty in satellite derived land cover maps. Research Report No. 573/07, Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield. Submitted to Bayesian Analysis. (January 2008)

08/04

Conti, S., Gosling, J.P., Oakley, J.E. and O'Hagan, A. (2009) Gaussian process emulation of dynamic computer codes. Research Report No. 571/07, Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield. MUCM Technical Report 08/04. Biometrika, 96, 663-76

08/05

Gosling, J. P. (2008). On the elicitation of continuous, symmetric, unimodal distributions. Research Report No. 577/08. Department of Probability and Statistics, The University of Sheffield. MUCM Technical Report 08/05, University of Sheffield

08/06

Boukouvalas, A (2008), Gaussian process emulation of stochastic models; developments and application to rabies modelling, MUCM Technical Report 08/06, Neural Computing Research Group, Aston University

1.1.3

08/07

Goldstein, M., House, L., & Rougier, J. (2008) Assessing Model Discrepancy Using a Multi-Model Ensemble. MUCM Technical report 08/07, Durham University & University of Bristol.

2.1.2

08/08

Boukouvalas, A. and Cornford, D. (2008) Dimension Reduction for Multivariate Emulation. MUCM Technical Report 08/08, Neural Computing Research Group, Aston University.

1.1.4

08/09

Cumming, C. and Goldstein, M. (2008) Bayes Linear Uncertainty Analysis for Oil Reservoirs Based on Multiscale Computer Experiments. MUCM Technical report 08/09, Durham University, Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis, eds. A. O'Hagan, M.West

1.3.6

08/10

Youssef, N. (2008) Towards ASCM Adaptive Sampler For Complex Models MUCM Technical report 08/10, London School Of Economics

3.1.5

08/11

Maruri-Aguilar, H. and Wynn, H. (2008) Generalised Design. MUCM Technical report 08/11, London School Of Economics

08/12

Gosling, J.P., Maruri-Aguilar, H., Bastos, L., Boukouvalas, A., Conford, D., Van Effelterre, T. and Wynn, H. (2009) Speeding-up and extending the sensitivity analysis of an epidemiological model. MUCM Case Study 1, MUCM Technical Report 08/12, University of Sheffield, published online as part of the MUCM toolkit.

09/01

Wilkinson, R. D. (2009). Bayesian Calibration of Expensive Multivariate Computer Experiments. MUCM Technical Report 09/01, book chapter for Computational Methods for Large-Scale Inverse Problems and Quantification of Uncertainty, pubs John Wiley and Sons 2. To appear in ``Large scale inverse problems and quantification of Uncertainty'', Springer, Editors: B. van Bloemen Waanders and B. Mallick.

09/02

Wilkinson, R. D. (2009). Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) gives exact results under the assumption of model error. Submitted to Biometrika journal.

09/03

R.D. Wilkinson and S. Tavare Estimating the primate divergence time using conditioned birth-and-death processes. To appear in Theoretical Population Biology, 2009, doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2009.02.003 . 

09/04

Vernon, I. R, and Goldstein, M. (2009). Bayes Linear Analysis of imprecision in Computer Models, with Application to Understanding Galaxy Formation. MUCM Technical Report 09/04, ISIPTA '09, (with I. Vernon) 

2.1.6

09/05

Andrianakis, Y. & Challenor, P. (2009). Parameter estimation and prediction using Gaussian Processes. MUCM Technical report 09/05

3.2.3

09/06

Boukouvalas, A., Cornford, D., Stehlk, M. (2009) Approximately Optimal Experimental Design for Heteroscedastic Gaussian Process Models. MUCM Technical report 09/06

1.1.6

09/07

Pepelyshev, A., Oakley, J. (2009) On the choice of correlation function and cross-validation for Gaussian processes. MUCM Technical report 09/07

3.3c.2

09/08

Bates, R.A., Maruri-Aguilar, H., Riccomagno, E., Schwabe, R. & Wynn, H. P. (2009) Self-avoiding generating sequences for Fourier lattice designs MUCM Technical report 09/08, London School Of Economics

3.1.11

10/01

Bower, R.G., Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., Benson, A.J., Baugh, C.M., Cole, S., Frenk, C.S. & Lacey, C.G. (2009) The Parameter Space of Galaxy Formation MUCM Technical report 10/01 Resubmitted to MNRAS after responding to referee's comments

2.1.7

10/02

House, L., Goldstein, M. & Vernon, I.R. (2009) Second Order Exchangeable Computer Models, MUCM Technical report 10/02, Submitted to The Royal Statistics Society, Series B

2.1.3

10/03

Vernon, I., Goldstein, M. &Bower, R.G. (2009) Galaxy Formation: a Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis. MUCM Technical report 10/03

2.1.8

10/04

Goldstein, M., Seheult, A. & Vernon, I. (2010) Assessing Model Adequacy . MUCM Technical report 10/04

2.1.10

10/05

Stephenson, G. & Challoner, P. (2010) Adjoints without Adjoint: emulating model derivatives. MUCM Technical report 10/05

3.2b.6

10/06

Fricker, T., Oakley, J. & Urban, N.M. (2010) Multivariate Emulators with Nonseparable Covariance Structures. MUCM Technical report 10/06

2.3.6

10/07

A. Pepelyshev (2010) The role of the nugget term in the Gaussian process method. accepted, MODA 9---Advances in model-oriented design and analysis, Contrib. Statist.

3.3c.2

10/08

Fricker, T.E., Oakley, J.E., Sims, N.D. & Worden, K. (2010) Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of an FRF of a structure using a Gaussian process emulator, MUCM Technical report 10/08

2.3.8

10/09

Fricker, T.E. & Oakley, J.E., (2010) Testing for the independence of computer model outputs, MUCM Technical report 10/09

2.3.7

10/10

Vernon, I. & Goldstein, M. (2010) A Bayes Linear Approach to Systems Biology, MUCM Technical Report 10/10

2.1.14

10/11

Seheult, A. (2010) Likelihood Methods for Estimating Model Discrepancy, MUCM Technical Report 10/11

2.1.9

11/01

O'Hagan, A. (2011) Uncertainty Analysis : the variance of the varianace, MUCM Technical Report 11/01

11/02

Wilkinson, R.D., Vrettas, M., Cornford, D. & Oakley, J.E. (2011) Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators, MUCM Technical Report 11/02