MUCM (Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models) is a research project concerned with issues of uncertainty in simulation models (also known as process models, mechanistic models, computer models, etc.).  MUCM techniques address questions such as uncertaintyquantification, uncertainty propagation, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, calibration (or tuning, history matching, etc.) and ensemble analysis.


This website presents the research and ongoing projects of the MUCM team.  It also provides services and resources for the wider community of researchers, modellers and users of models.  You will find here information about the ucm mailing list and the MUCM toolkit; additional services are planned.





When the MUCM project started in 2006, our subtitle was “A step change in understanding how models perform”.  Our (rather grandiose!) aims can be summarised as:

“The MUCM project will develop a technology that is capable of addressing all sources of uncertainty in model predictions and to quantify their implications efficiently, even in the most complex models.  It has the potential to revolutionise scientific debate by resolving the contradictions in competing models.  It will also have a radical effect on everyday modelling and model usage by making the uncertainties in model outputs transparent to modellers and end users alike.”


As part of the renewal of research funding in 2010, we also have a commitment to serving the wider community of researchers in the area of uncertainty in computer models:


“MUCM will extend its range of services to the community and reach out to new user groups to build a sustainable community of users and researchers.”








Why not subscribe to our Uncertainty in Computer Models mailing list to keep up to date? Click here to find out more.